Monday, April 27, 2009
Just Discovered: South Mountain Villager
Thursday, April 23, 2009
And we're back....
During this break from posting, there's been quite a bit of activity in the old farm fields of Laveen. Most notably, here's what has been observed on the commercial real estate front: MidFirst Bank is a go; LA Fitness is a maybe. Also, there's talk of a hospital, we've seen at least two new specialty businesses open recently, and now Denny's wants in on the action, along with other restaurants. So here's the play-by-play for each intersection:
51st and Baseline
Denny's signed a lease for the space at the westernmost end of the Safeway shopping center. I know, bummer.... I wanted something better, too. But this way, at least we have another option that is poised to successfully demonstrate our pent up demand. Also, Pappa John's has agreed to enter the same shopping center, leaving only two more spaces to fill. Across the street, MidFirst Bank is preparing to break ground, along with yet another fast food restaurant (Yum brands combo concept?) and a strip mall. As for LA Fitness, we have yet to see what will happen; their preferred local developer, Diversified Partners, has closed its doors and left the site's primary developer to negotiate with the gym directly.
51st and Southern
Reportedly, a new running store is opening here this weekend. The Runners Store is having a grand opening celebration, featuring free foot analysis on Saturday.
Dobbins and 63rd
HOSPITAL??? A Tempe-based developer named Habitat Metro has submitted speculative permit requests to attract one of three local hospitals: Banner, John C. Lincoln, or Catholic Healthcare West. None of the hospitals have committed, although they have each allegedly expressed interest on the condition that we build a freeway. To add credibility, there are also rumors floating around about a group of doctors planning to build an office condo development nearby (although they could probably get a great lease rate instead). Here's my concern about this: Habitat Metro has never completed this type of project in the past. Their largest development to date was a residential project in downtown Phoenix. Add to that the outraged claims of one of the property's neighbors that they have no actual plans for a hospital, and you will understand my skepticism.
We all know that it's just a matter of time, but let's not get too excited yet. We can't even get a definitive answer about the freeway, which is absolutely a prerequisite for any type of trauma center to be economically feasible in such an area as Laveen (those things are quite expensive, and we have yet to provide the immediate population density or demonstrated demand for emergency services--despite showing an absolute demand from the broader region). See also the Banner hospital underway in Queen Creek for an indication of their investment appetite at the present time (hint: they say it won't open anytime soon, despite being nearly complete). Let's see what happens with national health care reform and the state budget outlook for infrastructure improvements, and then perhaps I'll change my tune to something more along the lines of, "I'm a Believer."
27th and Southern
Much to my surprise, the small shopping center on the northwest corner is filling up, with the newest tenant selling weight loss shakes and supplements. Their neighbors include a preschool and barber shop.
35th and Baseline & 27th and Baseline
Still empty. That's right, two great new shopping centers that are completely empty. They were speculatively built when rents were considerably higher and better guaranteed. Now, it looks like they can't afford the cost of tenant improvements or the ability to discount leases in order to generate activity. Now, I'd have to guess that it's only a matter of time before one or both of these properties is sold for pennies on the dollar. Let's hope that there's still a bright future in store for both of them and they employ a savvy strategy as the market begins to stabilize.
That's all for now, but stay tuned. I have some exciting news about the upcoming public roundtable event, titled "Local Laveen Summit." Here, we will seek and find answers to many of Laveen's most challenging questions. More info to come soon, I promise.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
To get a Trader Joe's.......
On now to business..... I just read an article on one of GlobeSt.com's blogs about a Florida man who undertook a petition process to bring a Trader Joe's to his town: http://globestcommercialgrove.wordpress.com/2009/03/16/courting-trader-joe%E2%80%99s/
I must say that I like it. This sort of direct guerrilla-style approach is vaguely reminiscent of our Chipotle email campaign (or Chipatopolis, as Catherine and I call it--no clue why), and frankly, the best way for community members to be heard by the large national chains. Many people don't realize it, but this is exactly how our retail committee can work with members of the Laveen Association of HOA's and its members. As ideas bubble up from the masses, we can vote on where to concentrate our efforts and then begin a focused campaign.
As you will see in my yet-to-be posted article about the Local Laveen event in May, I would prefer to focus on small mom n' pop businesses for now. But that doesn't mean we can afford to forget a proactive approach in guiding national retailers who will inevitably end up here as well. Even die-hard independent types, like myself, have a few standby options for groceries, department stores, or whatever the case may be. So we should make sure that they move here before their less desirable counterparts; and a petition campaign is a great way to do it.
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Interim Post: How About that Freeway?
So what do they offer as an alternative? A parkway. Yes, that's right--a Michigan style parkway that has intersections, but no left turns. This is hardly a compromise, when you consider the following:
1) Insufficient capacity relief for cross-Phoenix traffic.
2) More frequent stops for regional and local traffic, which means more air and noise pollution.
3) No left turns means greater trip distances for local traffic.
4) Greater regional traffic overflow onto neighboring residential streets.
5) Insufficient relief for Ahwatukee residents' complaints.
At the end of the day, we know that the right answer is to build the freeway. It's clear that ADOT and MAG have convinced Ahwatukee community leaders and other local holdouts that some kind of bypass is needed. So I can't imagine why these same leaders have reverted to a proposed plan that we already turned down back in 2003.
Here's the original article, from Ahwatukee Foothills News:
Parkway may edge out freeway for Loop 202
Comments 0 | Recommend 0The idea of parkways replacing freeways is starting to gain some traction in Arizona's transportation community, mainly due to massive budget woes, more than $5 billion in Maricopa County alone, that make traditional freeways too expensive.
And the South Mountain Loop 202 may be the guinea pig in the parkway debate.
"We still have to make certain we're in a situation where we don't create more problems than we solve," said Bob Hazlett, a senior traffic engineer with the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG), who said there still needs to be a lot of study on the parkway concept.
The idea is to duplicate what is commonly called a "Michigan parkway" design, where traffic isn't allowed to make left turns at intersections. (See an example here.)
Instead, motorists travel past the intersection, then move into a turn lane in the median, where they in effect complete a U-turn then move to the right and exit onto the cross street, thanks to the large gaps in traffic that the no-left turn rule creates.
An added benefit to a parkway, Hazlett said, is that by eliminating left turns at intersections, the number of crashes are reduced because there are only 16 possible movements at an intersection instead of 32.
While a parkway isn't a magic bullet in the transportation engineer's arsenal, it does have advantages, including:
* Less land is needed because there are fewer lanes and water retention can be contained in the 60-foot-wide median.
* They generally require basic signalized intersections instead of expensive on and off ramps, as long as traffic volumes are low on the cross streets.
* A parkway carries more traffic per day than an equally sized surface street because there are fewer delays due to no left turns.
"I like the concept," said Councilman Sal DiCiccio, although he wants more details.
Jim Jochim, an opponent of the Loop 202 on Pecos Road, is wary of the parkway substitute because he said there are many questions that haven't been answered, including:
* How a parkway would cut through ridges in South Mountain Park that the Gila River Indian Community consider sacred.
* How a parkway with 90,000 vehicles a day could fill the requirements for a freeway that the Arizona Department of Transportation said was needed to carry an estimated 190,000 vehicles a day.
* What impact a parkway would have on schools that back onto or are within a block of two of the proposed road.
Hazlett also admits there are questions that need studying.
The Pecos Road stretch of the proposed Loop 202 has no cross traffic. So if signals are installed preventing left turns from 32nd Street or 40th Street onto Pecos Road it would seem superfluous.
At the same time, there are major streets, including Van Buren Street and Lower Buckeye Road, that cross the proposed Loop 202 in the West Valley that would require the more expensive traditional freeway interchanges.
But it's not clear if even a parkway design can cut the cost enough to save the Loop 202.
Originally priced at just under $1 billion, by 2003 it was up to $1.1 billion and is now estimated to cost $2.4 billion, a 40 percent increase in two years and a 120 percent increase in roughly five years.
And with all projects in the voter-approved Proposition 400 more expensive than expected, some projects may have to be abandoned.
MAG will look at the transportation projects included in Proposition 400 and consider maintaining the current schedule, but extending it over more than the original 20-year timeline, reducing the scope of projects or blending both ideas.
Hazlett said a final decision on revamping the Valley's transposition plan may not come until fall.
Then the Arizona Department of Transportation would need to re-write some portions of a draft environmental impact statement it has been working on over the past few years to take into account any changes to the scope and design of the Loop 202 before asking for federal approval and seeking public comment.
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
The Other Blog, and What to Expect Here in the Future....
For now, I've been shifting the focus back to my other much-neglected blog about western development and opinions on economic news. If you enjoy discussions about the big picture, and what it might mean to us in the near future, then I recommend that you check it out. Please just click or paste the following link into your browser: http://westerndevelopment.blogspot.com.
Monday, February 2, 2009
My last post
1. I did not intend for my views about the current real estate market or our recent developments to be construed as anti-development. If you know me or have read past posts on this blog, then you will know that real estate development is my passion and I enjoy working with our local retail developers on behalf of LAHOA. I am rather opinionated about this subject, however, and I'm passionate about responsible and high-quality development (as with other businesses and general contributions to society).
While no one called me out on this, I picked up a little bit of a negative vibe as I re-read the post, in response to a friend's comment about something else. Remember, these entries are written hastily--usually during my work day--and quality is not guaranteed.
2. This is not a prelude to a bid for political office. As mentioned previously, a friend's comment made me want to re-read my post--he thought I was establishing myself as a candidate for office. But I love my current industry (hotel development) and hope that the market allows me to keep working productively in it. This blog is my hobby and my outlet to vent about my community involvement. In order to take on any formal leadership position in this community, I would have to cut down on my travel, start attending more of our community meetings, and become far more accountable for my ideas and suggestions than I am now. But alas, I lack the time and patience; and my pragmatic side still prioritizes a paycheck over civil servitude.
Friday, January 23, 2009
The Village Concept
In theory, this is all very good. It gives Laveen the ability to strengthen its most prized rural/industrial characteristics by forcing the inevitable new developments to blend in with the existing community. This also helps to support the basis for several of our community organizations, such as the Laveen Community Council, LCRD, and LAHOA. But again, this is all still only in theory, and those community organizations have been threatened recently to modify their purposes....
When I moved to Laveen a few years ago, it was to embrace what I thought Laveen stood for and what I felt was being chased out of the now heavily urbanized Tempe and other nearby areas. It's that old school Arizona respect for an independent and somewhat agrarian lifestyle -- like when I was younger and got to watch the sheep being moved from one plot of land near my house to another nearby, or scavenged pecans and oranges from the nearby orchards and played in the open fields (all in Tempe, by the way). I had one friend in high school who lived here in Laveen, and we affectionately joked that he lived out in the boondocks; while at the same time observing the rapid disappearance of the boondocks from our own landscape.
Then, as Catherine and I shopped here for our first home a few years ago, I remember smiling at the site of hand-painted "Goats/Chivas for Sale" signs, "Fresh Eggs for Sale," and the periodic stray livestock or slow-moving tractors that created Laveen's only traffic jams at the time. "This is it!" I thought, and it's so close to South Mountain, the airport, downtown Phoenix, Tempe, Glendale (Catherine's parents lived there), and everywhere else I need to be besides home. As we moved in amongst the flood of other new subdivision dwellers, however, I saw that this area too was being threatened by haphazard urbanization and abandonment of a cultural legacy. And if you scroll through some of my past posts on this blog, you will see that I reacted by jumping in headfirst to the "Preserve Laveen Village" campaign to oppose higher density rezoning. If we allowed intensification in other areas of our village, then how could we maintain the assumption of a yet-to-be-constructed village core? And how would we actively preserve the existence of our beloved mom-and-pop farm businesses while simultaneously preserving their rights to cash in on their property values like the rest of us?
This especially hit home a few months ago, when I approached the owners of a prize-winning dairy cow at the AZ State Fair to find out where in Laveen they called home -- 27th Ave and Dobbins, by the way. But just as I thought I was about to find a local dairy where I could buy fresh milk, they crushed my dreams by reminding me that there was none, at least not any longer. The problem, as they very obviously stated, is that the land here was too valuable for its development potential, and so the farmers couldn't help but to gradually sell it off. My utopian dreams were crushed momentarily because, at the same time, I noticed that I could no longer locate the home of the fresh eggs, and my chances of finding truly local food were falling apart along with that elusive agrarian lifestyle.
But I thought that the village concept would protect us from this type of degradation! What about all those old-timers who should be concerned about preserving their customs, and could thus keep Laveen rooted in its legacy as a farming community? Did they all give up and sell out? But what happens when they can no longer ride their horses in peace because of the increased traffic? What about the rising noise pollution, litter, and fading nighttime views of the Milky Way? How about maintaining familiarity with one's neighbors? Surely, we wouldn't all be so complicit in eroding these charming features of our community.
But in defense of our community and its longtime residents, I can proudly point out that our/their laziness hasn't been the cause of all this conflict between old and new. Rather, it's been the continued failure of the City of Phoenix to respect its urban village concept and the fact that we tend to know what we're doing when we express concern about the development of our community. We're preserving what we the residents want, even if it doesn't necessarily jive with the hopes of a speculative land developer recognizing a potential opportunity. The unfortunate fact is that part of that opportunity lies in the expectation that our city government is completely spineless when it comes to preserving our general plan, and our staff/council have repeatedly acted against the residents of our village. Whenever we call their lack of support into question, we're essentially reminded that we need to take one for the team. This is uninspiring to say the least.....
But behold, the times they are a-changing. With such a disastrous real estate and development market right now, we won't likely see many more rezoning requests in the near future. So, for better or for worse, at least we can hang onto what's left of Laveen's general plan and expect that it remain intact for the time being. In effect, we can now take back our village because the real estate market doesn't appear to want it anymore.
I'm not just trying to make the best out of a bad situation or look at the silver lining. Instead, I want everyone else to see what a real opportunity this market has created for Laveen, even if it means that we must think outside of the box. That box, by the way, has somehow always packaged real estate as the only possible opportunity, which is a sad outlook for those of us who still respect a more industrious ethic to pure speculation. Real estate will still be there -- just relegated to its rightful place as a longer term type of business strategy. But we need action now, and we're all capable of helping.
Here are a few ideas for how we can do this together but individually:
First, get involved. Pay attention to your community and become concerned about it. After all, most Laveen residents are homeowners who won't likely move anytime soon due to the housing market's woes. So since you're here, make the best of it.
Second, go out and enjoy your life, close to home. Use the hiking trails, bike paths, parks, library, golf courses, etc. Go to the upcoming BBQ and other local events. I just checked the latest BLS data, and it says you have some extra time anyhow. So use it to rediscover your humanity, for heavens sake. I bet you'll be surprised to find something new if you try.
Third, shop here. I don't care if you hate Wal-Mart -- me too. So I'm not suggesting that you opt to support an international chain just because it has an outpost here. But please do forgo that convenient stop near the office if the same option is available near home. Now that we have these businesses, it's important that we keep them here. The alternative is an abandoned shopping center covered with graffiti and other vandalism.
Fourth, let's get the plows back in the ground, dairy farms working harder, and everyone else with a marketable skill into their own home-grown businesses wherever appropriate. The first three steps here were remarkably simple, so I expect a little support for my idealism on this one. If we all work together and follow our goals, we can make it happen. It'll just take some time and cooperative support.
Fifth, we need a plan. While planning usually comes first, it helps if we have the right mindset and behaviors in place as we begin the planning process and move toward execution. Remember how I pointed out that we can enjoy a little reprieve from rezoning battles and other such outside influences? Well, now we can put it to good use by strategizing and justifying our desire to maintain our cultural heritage as a community. It will make things easier in the future and preserve Laveen's "brand" image and character; not to mention I'm one of those sentimental types who believe in posterity, and I expect the same from others.
Now, let's do something positive for our future!